Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd70b…dcb1
sports · 248 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,844 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,400 · open +$106
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,878
Realized−$5,400
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses105 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,333
Open positions8
Markets (closed)240 / 248
History coverage63d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 8 History 240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,125
7 days+$1,433
14 days+$2,260
30 days+$1,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $729 $725 −$4 (-1%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 67¢ 70¢ $670 $700 +$30 (+4%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 69¢ 74¢ $627 $677 +$50 (+8%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Over 58¢ 60¢ $584 $604 +$20 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $511 $506 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 51¢ 54¢ $300 $315 +$15 (+5%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $200 $197 −$4 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 55¢ 56¢ $151 $155 +$4 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $587 $0 −$587 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $448 $0 −$448 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Spurs 59¢ 0¢ $305 $0 −$305 (-100%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 52¢ 0¢ $730 $0 −$730 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Pistons 48¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) HANJIN BRION 44¢ 0¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) Monte 64¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Spurs 62¢ 0¢ $314 $0 −$314 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MOUZ 15¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 21¢ 0¢ $372 $0 −$372 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 58¢ 0¢ $521 $0 −$521 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 45¢ 0¢ $286 $0 −$286 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 56¢ 0¢ $511 $0 −$511 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 23¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Spurs 51¢ 0¢ $737 $0 −$737 (-100%)
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana ThunderTalk Gaming 48¢ 0¢ $425 $0 −$425 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $711 −$70 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $512 +$2,992 +584%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $219 +$32 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $474 −$469 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $405 −$397 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $399 −$393 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $299 +$321 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $307 −$302 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $595 −$587 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $144 −$143 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $363 −$360 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $578 −$573 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $694 +$574 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $535 −$529 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $302 −$299 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $207 +$302 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $220 +$164 +74%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $150 +$94 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $538 −$529 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $511 −$506 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $411 +$313 +76%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $645 +$534 +83%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $228 −$73 -32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $428 −$210 -49%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs FENNEL (+1.5) Jun 10 $422 +$78 +18%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $98 +$128 +130%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $438 +$189 +43%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 09 $359 +$146 +41%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $517 +$395 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $59 −$40 -67%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $505 +$296 +59%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $316 −$311 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $438 +$344 +78%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $718 +$271 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $722 +$200 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $168 −$167 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $116 −$114 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $141 −$137 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $742 +$266 +36%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $527 −$521 -99%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 05 $87 −$87 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $733 +$905 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $404 −$400 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $315 +$585 +186%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $605 +$408 +67%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $705 +$516 +73%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $422 +$184 +44%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $374 +$281 +75%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $518 −$515 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$4,494
other 2% −$800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $153 23m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $205 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $517 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $269 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $319 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $305 1h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 67¢ $677 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $474 25h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $163 25h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $5 25h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $237 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 51¢ $399 27h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $219 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $307 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $595 38h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 71¢ $144 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $146 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $363 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $578 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $150 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $8 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $686 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 69¢ $633 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $535 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $149 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $302 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 46¢ $188 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 41¢ $350 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $95 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% -0.5%
≤30d 99 -2.6% -11.9% 47% 47% -6.4%
≤90d 240 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 42% -15.5%
all 240 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 42% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 42% -15.5%
10% -28.7% 40% -23.6%
15% -35.6% 37% -31.0%
20% -41.9% 32% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,878.30 · official $3,878.33 (match) · 811 history records