Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd70c…9ea4 world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$21
politics 22% +$2
other 21% −$1
economics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 2% −$3
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.2% -11.5% 30% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 31 +1.1% -8.5% 42% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 77 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 1% -9.7%
all 89 +0.4% -9.2% 34% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage341d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $71 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $190 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $136 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $142 +$5 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $44 −$2 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $73 −$10 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $112 −$7 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $77 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $167 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $285 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $136 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $107 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $116 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $269 +$2 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $71 −$3 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $75 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $112 −$8 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $17 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $4 +$3 +68%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $147 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $182 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $258 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $306 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $126 +$3 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $82 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $109 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $71 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $71 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $48 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $70 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $65 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $65 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $65 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $71 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $71 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $40 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $33 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $73 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $73 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $40 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $42 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $54 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $53 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 396 history records