Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd712…2807 crypto 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-4%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%83W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 46% -7.1%
≤30d 78 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 46% -7.1%
≤90d 78 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 46% -7.1%
all 160 -8.6% -17.3% 52% 44% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 44% -13.7%
10% -25.2% 32% -22.0%
15% -32.4% 23% -29.5%
20% -39.0% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses83 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage111d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$43 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$21 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $23 −$10 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $17 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $54 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $23 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 512 history records