Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D7 0xd713…af79 other 64 markets active 19h ago coverage 131d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,680 (+4%) realized +$15,340 · open −$2,660
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 54L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,487per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$9,994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$325,187
world 0% −$96
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -82.1% -83.8% 0% 0% -77.9%
≤90d 27 +17.6% +6.4% 11% 7% -88.8%
all 66 +16.3% +5.2% 18% 11% -95.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.2% 11% -95.1%
10% -4.9% 11% -95.6%
15% ← realistic here -14.1% 11% -96.0%
20% -22.5% 11% -96.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$7,900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$6,614 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$9,994
Realized+$15,340
Unrealized−$2,660
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)66 / 64
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$5,487
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $385 $2,650 +$2,265 (+589%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $385 $2,550 +$2,165 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $385 $1,750 +$1,365 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 50¢ 14¢ $5,000 $1,350 −$3,650 (-73%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $385 $725 +$340 (+89%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $385 $354 −$31 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $385 $265 −$120 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $385 $115 −$270 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $385 $75 −$310 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $385 $55 −$330 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $35 −$350 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $15 −$370 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $15 −$370 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $5 −$380 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $5 −$380 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $5 −$380 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $5 −$380 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $5 −$380 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $5 −$380 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $5 −$380 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $346 $4 −$342 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $385 −$385 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 22 $169 −$96 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $10,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? May 09 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? May 09 $7,900 −$7,900 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 09 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 09 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? May 09 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $8,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 07 $7,000 −$6,998 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 07 $2 +$20 +900%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 07 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 07 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 07 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $7,700 −$7,700 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $7,700 −$7,700 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $1 +$15 +1633%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 25 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 25 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 24 $7,000 −$6,993 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $10 +$17 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 19 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 19 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 19 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $7,400 −$7,400 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 16 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $22 +$163 +754%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 12 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 12 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $7 +$9 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $7 +$14 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $7,007 −$7,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 05 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 18h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $73 15d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,993.50 · official $9,999.50 (match) · 3500 history records