Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd714…2895 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-13%) realized −$112 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$88
other 18% −$17
politics 14% +$16
tech 7% −$56
world 5% −$9
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.0% +38.4% 100% 100% +39.1%
≤30d 8 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 38% +6.8%
≤90d 83 -26.3% -33.3% 39% 23% -22.3%
all 83 -26.3% -33.3% 39% 23% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 23% -22.3%
10% -39.7% 16% -29.8%
15% -45.5% 10% -36.6%
20% -50.9% 6% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage35d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $80 $60 −$20 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $34 +$17 +49%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá? May 31 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Trump say "Rabbit" or "Bunny" in May? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? May 31 $5 −$1 -20%
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Exp May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will "Conspiracy" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Exp May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $77 +$13 +17%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $35 −$32 -93%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel May 22 $5 −$4 -88%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $17 −$9 -54%
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in May? May 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump say "Bird" in May? May 22 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Trump say "Panther" in May? May 22 $1 $0 -23%
Will Trump say "Hawk" in May? May 22 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May? May 22 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? May 22 $1 $0 -35%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? May 22 $1 −$1 -68%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 22 $9 −$5 -52%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 22 $6 −$3 -40%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? May 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 22 $1 $0 -35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Elephant" in May? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $17 $0 -1%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Will AKEL win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 20 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 20 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 20 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 20 $18 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $81 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $51 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 65¢ $34 24d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá? SELL Yes 81¢ $23 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $7 24d
Will Trump say "Rabbit" or "Bunny" in May? SELL No 97¢ $1 24d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 24d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 29d
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Exp BUY Yes 47¢ $10 29d
Will "Conspiracy" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Exp BUY Yes 72¢ $10 29d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 50¢ $10 30d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $5 30d
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el SELL Yes 99¢ $65 30d
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el BUY Yes 77¢ $50 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? SELL No $2 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? BUY No $12 32d
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel SELL Yes $1 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? BUY No $11 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY No 14¢ $5 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY No 16¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in May? SELL No 90¢ $1 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY No 18¢ $3 32d
Will Trump say "Bird" in May? SELL No $0 32d
Will Trump say "Panther" in May? SELL No 70¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "Hawk" in May? SELL No 76¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May? SELL No 90¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? SELL No 58¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.86 · official $58.72 · 205 history records