Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D7 0xd716…a02e politics 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$319 (+0%) realized +$384 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$567per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$97
crypto 24% −$1
other 17% −$24
sports 9% +$256
economics 9% −$16
world 3% −$9
culture 2% −$7
tech 2% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 118 +1.5% -8.1% 6% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -9.1%
10% -16.9% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$1 · ×42.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.09 per $1 lost it wins $4.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$384
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)118 / 121
History coverage126d
Avg bet$567
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $102 $167 +$65 (+63%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $102 $37 −$65 (-63%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $4,086 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 16 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $890 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,656 −$3 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 05 $2,526 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Apr 25 $195 $0 +0%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton Apr 21 $1,702 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $4,232 −$11 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $2,915 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $2,576 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Mar 11 $1,703 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10AM ET Mar 10 $507 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $700 −$2 -0%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Mar 09 $16 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-9:00AM ET Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 8? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 8? Mar 09 $188 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8AM ET Mar 09 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8AM ET Mar 09 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-9:00AM ET Mar 09 $200 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-9:00AM ET Mar 09 $300 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-9:00AM ET Mar 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5AM ET Mar 08 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 5AM ET Mar 08 $106 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 08 $200 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 5AM ET Mar 08 $200 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 08 $200 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 08 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 6? Mar 08 $1,714 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $300 −$4 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $300 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs WW Team (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Mar 03 $1,720 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $1,900 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $1,832 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 02 $423 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $2,766 −$3 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $440 +$159 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 28? Mar 01 $1,223 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $200 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $955 −$3 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $1,230 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $40 57m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $109 57m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $50 57m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $60 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,543 34d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 34d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,653 34d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $890 34d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,656 34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,545 34d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $195 45d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $195 45d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 81¢ $33 65d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 72¢ $499 65d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $400 65d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $400 65d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $500 65d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 73¢ $30 65d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 74¢ $100 95d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 74¢ $100 95d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $599 100d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $1,101 100d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $1,103 100d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 79¢ $600 100d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $1,703 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.01 · official $213.01 (match) · 390 history records