Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd717…3b85
weather · 1267 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$131
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 1267
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1142.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 6 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? No 98¢ 89¢ $67 $62 −$6 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? No 94¢ 93¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? No 60¢ 55¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? No 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+104%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 5? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 7? No 74¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 11? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? No 17¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+488%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? No 63¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 5? No 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? No 80¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? No 73¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? No 73¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 16¢ 21¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Yes 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 6? No $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Yes 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? Yes 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7? Yes 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $0 +$1 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +36%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 12 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% +$1
other 9% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $67 0m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $47 1m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $8 4m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $29 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $23 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $9 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $9 14m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $4 17m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 17m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY Yes $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $35 20m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 22m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +36.1% +23.1% 67% 47% +34.1%
≤30d 15 +36.1% +23.1% 67% 47% +34.1%
≤90d 15 +36.1% +23.1% 67% 47% +34.1%
all 15 +36.1% +23.1% 67% 47% +34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1142.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.1% 47% +34.1%
10% ← realistic here +11.4% 47% +21.3%
15% +0.6% 40% +9.6%
20% -9.3% 27% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.59 · official $130.63 (match) · 3500 history records