Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D7 0xd719…ee34 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$16
politics 36% −$13
sports 7% +$21
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -1.9% -11.2% 5% 5% -9.7%
all 118 -2.4% -11.7% 8% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 7% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 7% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 6% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$2 · ×11.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage113d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $239 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $443 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $236 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $272 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $235 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $268 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 26 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $301 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 56m
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 2h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 6h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 6h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 9h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 18h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 32h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 37h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 10d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $24 13d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 22d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 23d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 24d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $248 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $248 25d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $207 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 346 history records