Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd71c…20b3
sports · 206 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,818 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,636 · open −$233
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,477
Realized−$4,636
Unrealized−$233
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses92 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$275
Open positions11
Markets (closed)195 / 206
History coverage132d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 11 History 195 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$729
7 days−$127
14 days−$410
30 days−$799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 77¢ $360 $469 +$109 (+30%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 59¢ 62¢ $374 $387 +$13 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $222 $247 +$25 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 46¢ $251 $204 −$47 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 58¢ 36¢ $118 $73 −$46 (-39%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $26 $47 +$21 (+81%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+42%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $59 $20 −$39 (-66%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Spirit 66¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage PARIVISION 50¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MIBR 22¢ 0¢ $434 $0 −$434 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Anyones Legend 62¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Team Falcons 13¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Yandex 47¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 51¢ 0¢ $748 $0 −$748 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) TheMongolz 44¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage PARIVISION 38¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MOUZ 34¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 36¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 23¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Liquid 50¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $241 +$93 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$28 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $158 −$91 -57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$34 +64%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $34 −$5 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $104 +$61 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$43 +133%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $168 −$29 -17%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $190 +$123 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $128 +$113 +89%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$43 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $382 −$21 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $120 −$96 -80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $204 +$66 +32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $155 −$125 -81%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $139 −$136 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $198 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $254 −$252 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $91 −$89 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $105 −$93 -88%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $229 +$295 +129%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $128 +$56 +44%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $137 −$135 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $515 +$385 +75%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $759 −$748 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $20 +$15 +72%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $265 +$216 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,543 +$236 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $156 +$12 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $61 −$60 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $81 +$13 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S Jun 01 $30 +$20 +67%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $67 +$8 +13%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $36 +$12 +34%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $44 +$6 +13%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $99 −$81 -81%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $42 +$24 +56%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $271 +$26 +10%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $98 +$56 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $14 +$10 +72%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner May 30 $54 +$33 +62%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $118 +$110 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 36% −$1,967
world 27% −$1,613
economics 19% −$271
other 8% −$1,672
finance 6% +$972
crypto 4% −$316
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 52¢ $61 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 53¢ $4 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 32¢ $6 15m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $5 15m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $6 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $36 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $4 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 31¢ $1 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 31¢ $2 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 31¢ $2 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 31¢ $2 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 32¢ $0 17m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 32¢ $1 17m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 32¢ $21 17m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 43¢ $5 21m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 43¢ $8 21m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $29 22m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $10 22m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 55¢ $55 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 55¢ $4 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 53¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 53¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 53¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 53¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 53¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 53¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 53¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 51¢ $53 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 75¢ $43 31m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 75¢ $4 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 43% -11.4%
≤30d 133 -10.6% -19.1% 49% 46% -11.6%
≤90d 181 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 44% -13.1%
all 195 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 42% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 42% -19.3%
10% -27.5% 37% -27.1%
15% -34.5% 32% -34.1%
20% -40.9% 25% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,476.69 · official $1,476.69 (match) · 2050 history records