Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd71e…f555 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
other 16% −$1
politics 13% −$3
sports 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 7% −$1
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -10.1%
all 45 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage253d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $23 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $45 −$2 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $41 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $3 $0 -2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $19 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 21 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 21 $2 $0 -20%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 20 $1 $0 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $41 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 20 $2 $0 -22%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 18 $23 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Oct 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 14 $23 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 12 $10 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 32m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $22 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $20 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $46 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $8 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $34 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $32 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $8 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.44 · official $38.44 (match) · 171 history records