Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd721…57a7 weather 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,294 (+48%) realized +$2,295 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%113W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$323
sports 1% −$15
other 0% −$10
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -67.9% -70.9% 12% 12% -71.9%
≤30d 189 -1.8% -11.2% 19% 16% -20.6%
≤90d 461 +1.4% -8.3% 25% 22% -19.9%
all 461 +1.4% -8.3% 25% 22% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 22% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 20% -27.6%
15% -25.1% 19% -34.6%
20% -32.4% 18% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$8 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$2,295
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses113 / 348
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)461 / 462
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$12 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $6 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$11 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $13 −$9 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 −$3 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$114 +1221%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +299%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.18 · official $13.18 (match) · 3500 history records