Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd723…347d other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$51 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate22%28W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$13
sports 26% −$10
politics 15% −$1
crypto 13% +$39
world 1% −$1
finance 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 4 -26.0% -33.1% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 22 -30.0% -36.7% 23% 14% -10.2%
all 130 -9.1% -17.7% 22% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 6% -9.5%
10% -25.6% 4% -18.2%
15% -32.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -39.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses28 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 133
History coverage632d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $466 $462 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $656 −$41 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,100 +$23 +2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $165 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 30 $50 +$64 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $87 −$17 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $98 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 29 $72 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $104 −$3 -3%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) Mar 29 $83 +$26 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $87 −$35 -40%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Mar 29 $102 −$18 -17%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $112 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $113 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $137 +$2 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $111 +$20 +18%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 09 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 07 $101 +$1 +1%
Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 07 $1 $0 +25%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $479 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $437 5h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Türkiy BUY 5¢ $1 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $480 8h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $195 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $319 13h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Japan vs. Sw BUY 4¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $505 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $166 17h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $311 17h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $314 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $176 17h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 17h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $40 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $373 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.97 · official $462.97 (match) · 459 history records