Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd723…25bf crypto 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,891 (+4%) realized +$1,938 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%73W / 103L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$611
7 days−$2,018
14 days+$1,025
30 days+$850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$2,513
crypto 45% −$1,558
other 6% −$67
tech 0% −$9
economics 0% −$53
finance 0% −$10
culture 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +5.5% -4.6% 41% 38% -14.8%
≤30d 176 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 38% -7.4%
≤90d 176 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 38% -7.4%
all 176 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 38% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 38% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 32% -16.3%
15% -19.4% 26% -24.4%
20% -27.3% 23% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$116 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$1,938
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses73 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions5
Markets (closed)176 / 181
History coverage18d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $235 $192 −$42 (-18%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $160 $165 +$5 (+3%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $126 $117 −$9 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$94 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $411 +$244 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$326 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $340 −$241 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $233 −$136 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $605 +$78 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2,321 −$463 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $208 −$42 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $408 −$89 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$64 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,716 −$56 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $307 +$177 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,322 −$166 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,114 −$136 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $233 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,020 +$306 +30%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,718 +$893 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$181 +1469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$79 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$28 +28%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $48 +$52 +110%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $102 −$45 -44%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $608 −$590 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$59 +146%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,161 −$1,161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $81 +$146 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,307 +$573 +25%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 −$37 -73%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $132 +$100 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$79 +149%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $110 +$40 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $625 +$236 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $314 −$133 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $287 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $414 +$133 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.73 · official $553.73 (match) · 684 history records