Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D7 0xd727…ecce sports 1138 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,974 (+10%) realized +$15,038 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%498W / 605L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$1,986est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,118
economics 2% +$5
tech 1% +$52
other 1% −$127
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +7.0% -3.2% 47% 47% -3.6%
≤30d 411 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 45% -7.2%
≤90d 1103 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 43% -10.2%
all 1103 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 43% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 42% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 41% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 41% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$97 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$3,411
Realized+$15,038
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses498 / 605
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,986
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1103 / 1138
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$135
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $531 $347 −$183 (-35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $164 $230 +$66 (+40%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ 57¢ $175 $201 +$26 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $81 $190 +$108 (+134%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 34¢ 80¢ $68 $161 +$93 (+137%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 42¢ $132 $124 −$8 (-6%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ 58¢ $90 $117 +$27 (+30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $166 $116 −$50 (-30%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 53¢ $86 $106 +$20 (+23%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 50¢ 52¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 51¢ $98 $102 +$4 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $105 $102 −$4 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 50¢ $94 $99 +$5 (+5%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 49¢ 48¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals 47¢ 46¢ $94 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Atlanta Braves 46¢ 46¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ 46¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 44¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Miami Marlins 44¢ 44¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 43¢ 42¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies 43¢ 42¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $112 $82 −$30 (-26%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs 41¢ 40¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 38¢ $96 $76 −$20 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $89 +$111 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $99 +$101 +101%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $102 +$98 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $71 +$129 +180%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $99 +$101 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $88 −$88 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 26 $94 −$94 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 26 $93 −$92 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $81 −$80 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 26 $59 −$58 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $99 −$98 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 26 $91 −$90 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $97 −$96 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $93 −$93 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 26 $179 −$179 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $102 +$98 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $83 +$117 +140%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $85 +$115 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $99 +$101 +101%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $91 +$109 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $89 +$111 +124%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $93 +$107 +114%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $89 +$111 +124%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $97 +$103 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $83 +$117 +140%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $9 +$11 +124%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $81 +$119 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $97 +$103 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $95 −$95 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $94 −$94 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $83 −$83 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $87 −$87 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 49¢ $99 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $93 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $73 1h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $89 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $87 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $87 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 41¢ $83 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $10 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $9 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $95 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $93 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $102 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $75 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 38¢ $77 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 34¢ $69 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $6 29h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $4 29h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $4 29h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $5 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $10 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $10 30h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $94 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $24 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $1 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $13 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $1 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $90 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $1 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $9 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 40¢ $80 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,411.03 · official $3,414.03 (match) · 3500 history records