Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd72b…bb54
world · 38 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage467d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $12 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 −$2 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $34 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $35 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $19 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $61 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $36 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $3 $0 -11%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 14 $16 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30? Apr 06 $8 −$3 -38%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $13 $0 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $11 $0 +3%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 06 $15 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 9% +$1
crypto 5% −$3
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $20 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $2 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $2 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $17 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $34 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $33 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $35 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $34 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $35 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $35 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $35 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $32 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $25 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.8% 36% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -1.5% -10.8% 36% 0% -9.9%
all 37 -0.6% -10.0% 59% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records