Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd72e…58f5 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$2
other 50% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.7% -28.2% 53% 40% -20.8%
≤30d 15 -20.7% -28.2% 53% 40% -20.8%
≤90d 15 -20.7% -28.2% 53% 40% -20.8%
all 15 -20.7% -28.2% 53% 40% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 40% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 33% -28.4%
15% -41.4% 27% -35.3%
20% -47.1% 27% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthony Elanga: 1+ shots Yes 40¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Over 81¢ 63¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Amad Diallo: 2+ shots Yes 73¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots Yes 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 90¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Arda Güler: 3+ shots Jun 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3+ shots Jun 14 $1 +$1 +136%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 12m
Anthony Elanga: 1+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Amad Diallo: 2+ shots BUY Yes 73¢ $1 4h
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 90¢ $1 13h
Arda Güler: 3+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $2 20h
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $2 20h
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3+ shots BUY Yes 41¢ $1 23h
Arda Güler: 3+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $1 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $3 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 89¢ $1 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 63¢ $1 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 23h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 SELL Yes $0 23h
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 SELL Yes 99¢ $1 24h
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 SELL Yes 99¢ $1 24h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 84¢ $1 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $1 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 93¢ $1 25h
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 84¢ $1 25h
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 97¢ $1 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.71 · official $2.71 (match) · 29 history records