Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd731…64a6 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$842 (-38%) realized −$916 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$875
crypto 24% +$80
other 17% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +64.9% +49.2% 100% 100% +46.3%
≤30d 2 +64.9% +49.2% 100% 100% +46.3%
≤90d 28 -42.9% -48.3% 32% 29% -49.2%
all 28 -42.9% -48.3% 32% 29% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 29% -49.2%
10% -53.3% 29% -54.1%
15% -57.8% 21% -58.5%
20% -61.9% 18% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$67 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized−$916
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage33d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $335 $409 +$74 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $40 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 22 $45 −$42 -94%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner May 22 $82 −$80 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 May 21 $132 −$131 -99%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 May 21 $259 −$256 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 21 $132 +$128 +97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $131 −$130 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $124 −$123 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 21 $98 −$96 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -94%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $66 −$65 -98%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 21 $110 −$108 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 21 $62 +$45 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 21 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 20 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 20 $54 −$38 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 20 $130 +$166 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? May 20 $30 −$21 -68%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo May 20 $20 −$7 -33%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 3 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $10 −$7 -70%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo May 20 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $342 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone SELL Franco Agamenone 100¢ $58 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 69¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $45 31d
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Fake do Biru 30¢ $51 31d
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Fake do Biru 35¢ $31 31d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 69¢ $132 31d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $259 32d
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $259 32d
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 50¢ $132 32d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $131 32d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY TYLOO 62¢ $124 32d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $98 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $42 32d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro BUY Liquid 43¢ $15 32d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro BUY Liquid 39¢ $51 32d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 BUY No 59¢ $110 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $107 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $83 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.63 · official $408.63 (match) · 63 history records