Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd731…1ad2
crypto · 43 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$52 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage488d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 4 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 49¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 48¢ 47¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 28 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 28 $11 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 28 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$18 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 28 $12 +$19 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 28 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 28 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 28 $26 +$42 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 28 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 28 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$20 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 28 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 28 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 28 $16 +$20 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 28 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$19 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 28 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 28 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 28 $2 +$1 +41%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$25
other 15% −$28
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 8h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 8h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $50 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $15 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.5% -39.9% 36% 18% -37.7%
≤30d 11 -33.5% -39.9% 36% 18% -37.7%
≤90d 11 -33.5% -39.9% 36% 18% -37.7%
all 39 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 38% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 38% -21.6%
10% -28.8% 36% -29.1%
15% -35.7% 28% -36.0%
20% -42.0% 26% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.90 · official $40.90 (match) · 96 history records