Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd732…05ad crypto 173 markets active 3d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-8%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%88W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$21
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$18
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -70.2% -73.0% 20% 20% -66.7%
≤30d 173 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 48% -18.2%
≤90d 173 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 48% -18.2%
all 173 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 48% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 48% -18.2%
10% -26.4% 45% -26.0%
15% -33.5% 38% -33.2%
20% -40.0% 32% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses88 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 317 history records