Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D7 0xd734…b0fa other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$81 (+8%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$44
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$24
sports 36% +$29
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +9.7% -0.8% 53% 40% -5.7%
≤30d 48 +13.6% +2.8% 56% 44% -4.6%
≤90d 48 +13.6% +2.8% 56% 44% -4.6%
all 48 +13.6% +2.8% 56% 44% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 44% -4.6%
10% -7.0% 31% -13.7%
15% -16.0% 19% -22.1%
20% -24.3% 15% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage8d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $61 −$11 -17%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $62 +$16 +26%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $63 −$2 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $28 −$18 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 −$13 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +30%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $12 +$2 +20%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $20 +$7 +33%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$1 -3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $65 +$15 +24%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $69 −$4 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $57 +$12 +20%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $119 +$15 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $22 −$3 -14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $35 +$11 +32%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +43%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $5 $0 -6%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +386%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$7 +45%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $32 −$12 -36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$3 -48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +69%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$7 +225%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 74¢ $50 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $78 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $61 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 90¢ $61 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $62 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $63 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $17 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 25h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $8 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 44¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $12 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $20 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $19 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 47¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $15 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records