Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd737…b4c4
sports · 67 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$42 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$29
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)43 / 67
History coverage66d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 24 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner T1 40¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 29¢ 57¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner K27 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Alliance 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 67¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Solary 40¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 63¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 59¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Ursa 45¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 56¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Monte 56¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 65¢ 63¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 49¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Gen.G 67¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 62¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 +$2 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -22%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1 $0 -21%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 10? May 09 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 19? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on April 19? May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 18? Apr 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Apr 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 16? Apr 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap Apr 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13 Apr 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 09 $99 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 39% +$2
crypto 37% +$42
sports 23% −$9
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 63¢ $1 2m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $1 7m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $1 17m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $1 41m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $1 45m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 49¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 59¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $1 1h
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY Solary 40¢ $1 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $1 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 48¢ $1 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $1 3h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 65¢ $1 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $1 7h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Monte 56¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 53¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 43¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 53¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Festina Lente 53¢ $1 10h
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) BUY Alliance 61¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 45¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -26.0% -33.0% 31% 31% -25.7%
≤30d 30 -25.1% -32.2% 33% 30% -25.2%
≤90d 43 -20.5% -28.1% 47% 23% +4.8%
all 43 -20.5% -28.1% 47% 23% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 23% +4.8%
10% -35.0% 23% -5.3%
15% -41.3% 23% -14.4%
20% -47.0% 19% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.20 · official $29.21 (match) · 108 history records