Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd737…be95 world 55 markets active 66d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$216,983 (+41%) realized +$216,983 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$9,583per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$396est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$218,902
finance 17% +$11,640
sports 6% +$2,106
other 4% −$13,819
politics 2% −$3,327
crypto 0% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 43 +0.4% -9.2% 19% 14% -6.9%
all 55 +31.1% +18.6% 25% 20% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.6% 20% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here +7.2% 16% -15.6%
15% -3.1% 16% -23.7%
20% -12.6% 16% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$5,092) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +105% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34,919 vs −$6,672 · ×5.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$216,983
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$396
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage65d
Avg bet$9,583
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $5,100 −$3,544 -70%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 24 $40 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $51,227 −$20,110 -39%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 24 $1,536 −$422 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $122,400 −$115,426 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $3 +$11 +376%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $134,466 −$89,952 -67%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $2,900 +$1,461 +50%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Apr 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 21 $89,100 +$11,640 +13%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $5,397 −$5,397 -100%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Apr 16 $1,000 −$373 -37%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $15,000 −$3,248 -22%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Apr 15 $360 −$360 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Apr 15 $140 −$140 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Apr 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 15 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 1AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $2,365 −$1,301 -55%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $13,000 −$184 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $5,000 −$2,151 -43%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 14 $600 −$373 -62%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $2,259 −$1,196 -53%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $5,000 +$897 +18%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 11 $6,000 −$5,339 -89%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Apr 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Apr 11 $5,092 −$5,092 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Apr 11 $148 −$148 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 11 $18,400 +$10,094 +55%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $1,900 −$1,448 -76%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $6,100 −$3,602 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 08 $112 −$112 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $13,202 +$462,431 +3503%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 08 $2,718 −$2,443 -90%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 04 $1,399 +$20 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 04 $81 −$17 -22%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 04 $2,215 −$1,647 -74%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $400 −$62 -15%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $1,540 −$256 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 20 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $210 −$111 -53%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 09 $200 −$5 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Mar 09 $380 −$106 -28%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 09 $500 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? SELL Yes $117 65d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $42 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $602 65d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1,114 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes $1,868 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes $1,406 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes $1,589 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes $365 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes $658 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes $1,088 65d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1,536 66d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY Yes $500 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,000 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY Yes $500 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY Yes $500 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY Yes $600 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? SELL Yes $465 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? SELL Yes $975 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY Yes $3,000 67d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 11¢ $4,000 67d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 12¢ $8,000 68d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes $1,290 68d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11,551 68d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL 76ers 100¢ $4,361 68d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 65¢ $1,400 68d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 66¢ $1,500 68d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5,346 68d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $5,280 68d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 68d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records