Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd737…71bb politics 778 markets active 2h ago coverage 710d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$873 (-3%) realized −$751 · open −$122
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%398W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$92
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$859
sports 17% −$49
other 17% +$866
world 14% −$1,516
crypto 13% +$697
tech 4% +$211
finance 2% −$44
economics 1% −$254
culture 1% +$32
weather 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -49.5% -54.3% 18% 18% -65.5%
≤30d 33 -6.3% -15.2% 45% 42% -22.7%
≤90d 118 -43.7% -49.0% 32% 31% -51.6%
all 745 -4.2% -13.4% 53% 48% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 48% -12.0%
10% -21.6% 40% -20.4%
15% -29.2% 32% -28.1%
20% -36.2% 26% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$33 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$741
Realized−$751
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses398 / 347
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions33
Markets (closed)745 / 778
History coverage710d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 18¢ 20¢ $180 $195 +$15 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $132 $93 −$39 (-30%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $46 $55 +$9 (+21%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $43 $50 +$7 (+15%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 53¢ 56¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $35 $42 +$8 (+21%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $54 $31 −$23 (-42%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $15 $20 +$4 (+29%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 14¢ $28 $19 −$9 (-32%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $34 $17 −$17 (-49%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 46¢ 56¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 36¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-42%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming governor race in 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-46%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 55¢ 30¢ $16 $9 −$8 (-45%)
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? Yes 27¢ 11¢ $22 $9 −$13 (-59%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-54%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 69¢ 80¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 30¢ 18¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-42%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 46¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 16¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$8 +365%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +233%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 04 $15 +$5 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $12 +$8 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $5 +$15 +307%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $6 +$4 +72%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$5 +96%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 16 $30 +$30 +97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $7 +$3 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 08 $3 +$3 +109%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 08 $5 +$2 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 06 $7 +$3 +45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 06 $77 +$22 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 02 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 02 $7 +$3 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 02 $10 +$10 +104%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 02 $13 +$7 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 02 $5 +$15 +292%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 02 $79 +$21 +27%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Apr 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Apr 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Big Game: Coin Toss Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $8 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 36h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $21 11d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 17d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 19d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $26 19d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 21d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 21d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 21d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Houston Astros 24¢ $5 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? BUY No 52¢ $5 26d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $11 26d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 27d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 52¢ $21 27d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 27d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY No 56¢ $6 27d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 27d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 77¢ $16 28d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $14 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $741.09 · official $741.10 (match) · 3196 history records