Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd738…eeee crypto 485 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$273 (+1%) realized +$273 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%240W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$252
14 days+$159
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$1,728
sports 46% +$967
other 3% +$257
culture 1% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +15.3% +4.4% 72% 67% +3.8%
≤30d 41 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 54% -8.7%
≤90d 345 -8.8% -17.5% 48% 43% -17.2%
all 485 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 44% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 44% -12.3%
10% -22.5% 36% -20.7%
15% -30.0% 27% -28.4%
20% -36.8% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$44 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses240 / 245
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)485 / 485
History coverage139d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 485 Trades
no open positions (182 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $227 +$32 +14%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $70 +$11 +16%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $28 +$20 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $36 +$129 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $213 −$210 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $142 +$173 +121%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $189 +$69 +37%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $288 +$97 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $225 +$66 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $48 −$48 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $27 +$21 +78%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $19 +$8 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $30 −$29 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $46 −$45 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $94 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 31 $33 +$11 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $58 +$99 +170%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $30 +$29 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $32 −$31 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $93 −$92 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $26 +$18 +70%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $98 +$28 +29%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $46 +$10 +21%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $30 +$16 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $31 −$31 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $43 −$42 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $61 +$34 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 May 21 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 21 $17 −$2 -12%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $31 +$46 +149%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 May 19 $30 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $49 −$49 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 18 $27 −$27 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 18 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 86¢ $143 16m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $54 21m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 25m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $47 27m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 50¢ $117 39m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $62 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 73¢ $99 4d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 34¢ $30 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 100¢ $81 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $48 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 86¢ $70 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 58¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1724 history records