Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd73c…6f88 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 32% -8.9%
≤30d 19 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 32% -8.9%
≤90d 19 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 32% -8.9%
all 19 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 32% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 32% -8.9%
10% -24.4% 16% -17.6%
15% -31.7% 11% -25.5%
20% -38.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $151 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $56 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $109 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Jun 21 $88 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$2 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $14 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $94 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $76 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $9 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $12 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records