Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd741…63e0 sports 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized +$30 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%42W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$88
14 days−$289
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$407
sports 29% +$306
other 22% −$3
crypto 1% −$11
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -8.8% -17.5% 38% 36% +0.2%
≤30d 63 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 37% -20.1%
≤90d 104 -8.6% -17.3% 40% 39% -11.5%
all 104 -8.6% -17.3% 40% 39% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 39% -11.5%
10% -25.2% 39% -19.9%
15% -32.4% 38% -27.7%
20% -39.1% 36% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses42 / 62
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage66d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $235 $185 −$50 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $151 +$97 +64%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $25 +$26 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$31 -62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$16 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +126%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +166%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +473%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$13 +213%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$24 -96%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$11 +223%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 +$56 +168%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $36 +$65 +181%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $35 +$19 +53%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Patrik Schick: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $237 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $29 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $20 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $249 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $151 20h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $51 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $19 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $25 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 39h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 39h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 39h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $66 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $12 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 41h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $14 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $10 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 47h
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.70 · official $184.70 (match) · 189 history records