Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D7 0xd742…79e4 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,534 (-7%) realized −$3,555 · open +$1,021
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$5,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$647
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 37% +$4,760
world 31% −$8,560
other 16% +$975
politics 6% +$68
sports 6% −$3
tech 2% +$173
crypto 2% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -50.4% -55.1% 29% 29% -22.9%
≤30d 31 -35.9% -42.0% 39% 39% -12.0%
≤90d 31 -35.9% -42.0% 39% 39% -12.0%
all 44 -21.1% -28.6% 45% 45% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 45% -21.3%
10% -35.4% 43% -28.8%
15% -41.7% 32% -35.7%
20% -47.4% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$488 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$5,400
Realized−$3,555
Unrealized+$1,021
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions18
Markets (closed)44 / 64
History coverage143d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $500 $904 +$404 (+81%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $500 $760 +$260 (+52%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $200 $537 +$337 (+169%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $440 $469 +$29 (+7%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 50¢ $390 $324 −$66 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 93¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $300 $290 −$10 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $232 +$32 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,000 +$518 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $420 +$205 +49%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $500 −$183 -37%
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? Jun 20 $300 −$179 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 +$59 +56%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $103 −$47 -46%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $500 −$145 -29%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $200 +$27 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $210 +$89 +42%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 +$117 +110%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $212 −$200 -94%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $317 +$239 +75%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1,000 +$338 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$53 +52%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $2,850 −$2,850 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 05 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 03 $500 −$500 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27? Feb 28 $200 +$132 +66%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 27 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26? Feb 26 $100 +$154 +154%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $400 +$625 +156%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20? Feb 20 $500 +$667 +133%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19? Feb 19 $5,500 +$1,264 +23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $5,000 +$2,918 +58%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $1,148 +$475 +41%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 03 $42 +$23 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $102 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,518 4h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $317 10h
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $420 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $53 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 27h
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? SELL Yes 3¢ $107 41h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $106 41h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 46h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $105 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $104 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $53 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $149 46h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $104 46h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $56 46h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 38¢ $355 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $105 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $106 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $227 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $113 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $105 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,400.45 · official $5,501.53 · 270 history records