Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

D7 0xd744…9f71 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$539 (-44%) realized −$539 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$204per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-59.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-55.4%	-59.7%	33%	33%	-50.9%
≤30d	6	-55.4%	-59.7%	33%	33%	-50.9%
≤90d	6	-55.4%	-59.7%	33%	33%	-50.9%
all	6	-55.4%	-59.7%	33%	33%	-50.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.7%	33%	-50.9%
10%	-63.5%	17%	-55.6%
15%	-67.0%	0%	-59.9%
20%	-70.3%	0%	-63.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -55% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$61 vs −$170 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.18 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$539

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage6d

Avg bet$204

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$249	−$208	-84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$267	−$267	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$202	+$64	+32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$297	+$57	+19%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 24	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	9¢	$41	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	64¢	$105	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$109	20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$249	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$158	20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$297	39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$202	39h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Ecuador	68¢	$100	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records