Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd749…de14 politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%4W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$2
sports 32% −$1
other 11% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% $0
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -0.1% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses4 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage181d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $124 −$3 -3%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $124 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $124 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $253 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 20 $253 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $253 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $253 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $253 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $256 −$1 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $256 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $249 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 06 $246 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $244 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 02 $245 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $245 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $248 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 30 $249 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $121 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $121 21h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $121 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $124 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $124 16d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $124 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $124 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $124 30d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $124 36d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $124 36d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $124 39d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $124 40d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $124 42d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $124 49d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 49d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $125 71d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $125 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $125 74d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $125 74d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 90d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 90d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 90d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 90d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $253 99d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $253 99d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 103d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $253 105d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $253 106d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $253 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records