Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D7 0xd74b…4506 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$8 (-12%) realized −$7 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR15%break-even

Win rate23%3W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day34.0pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +15%

net ROI/market (all)-40.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-33.7%	-40.0%	23%	15%	-47.7%
≤30d	13	-33.7%	-40.0%	23%	15%	-47.7%
≤90d	13	-33.7%	-40.0%	23%	15%	-47.7%
all	13	-33.7%	-40.0%	23%	15%	-47.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-40.0%	15%	-47.7%
10% ← realistic here	-45.7%	8%	-52.7%
15%	-51.0%	8%	-57.3%
20%	-55.8%	8%	-61.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -48% → late -21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$18

Realized−$7

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)23%

Wins / losses3 / 10

Open positions3

Markets (closed)13 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day34.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	15¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	17¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	No	1¢	1¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$1	-32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$3	+262%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Jun 15	$1	$0	-14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Jun 15	$1	$0	-14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$2	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 15	$6	+$1	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$15	−$4	-24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$1	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$1	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$1	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$3	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$1	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$1	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$1	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$1	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$1	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$4	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$1	48m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	SELL No	30¢	$1	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	57m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	SELL No	22¢	$1	58m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY No	33¢	$1	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	24¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$5	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL No	5¢	$11	1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY No	1¢	$3	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	5¢	$10	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.22 · official $18.22 (match) · 41 history records