Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd74c…3ae5
other · 102 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$27 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses48 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage61d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 1 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$47
14 days−$42
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? No 43¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 76¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 13 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $115 −$19 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 13 $9 +$5 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $82 −$61 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 09 $37 +$24 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 08 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 08 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 08 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $9 −$2 -26%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $19 +$3 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $9 +$5 +53%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$6 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $39 −$5 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $19 +$4 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $19 +$4 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $29 −$7 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $10 +$2 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $16 −$4 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$2 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $7 +$6 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $10 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$25
world 11% −$32
politics 7% +$22
sports 3% −$20
finance 1% −$3
tech 1% −$5
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 39m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 95¢ $11 20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $8 26h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 59¢ $7 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $96 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $3 34h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 65¢ $8 37h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 67¢ $14 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $5 38h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 40¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY No 80¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $11 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $11 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.1% -8.5% 59% 41% -19.6%
≤30d 59 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 46% -12.7%
≤90d 101 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 38% -13.4%
all 101 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 38% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 38% -13.4%
10% -21.1% 26% -21.7%
15% -28.8% 19% -29.2%
20% -35.8% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.35 · official $8.35 (match) · 317 history records