Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd750…3a12 crypto 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-48%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-51.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -18.9% -26.7% 50% 50% -25.6%
≤30d 3 -46.0% -51.1% 33% 33% -62.6%
≤90d 3 -46.0% -51.1% 33% 33% -62.6%
all 3 -46.0% -51.1% 33% 33% -62.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.1% 33% -62.6%
10% -55.8% 33% -66.1%
15% -60.1% 33% -69.4%
20% -64.0% 33% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 4 history records