Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
D7 0xd753…6053 sports 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$2,109 (+14%) realized +$2,335 · open −$226
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,790
7 days+$2,944
14 days+$2,082
30 days+$2,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$2,155
other 14% −$321
crypto 3% +$122
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +34.4% +21.6% 48% 48% +20.4%
≤30d 45 +30.2% +17.8% 47% 47% +6.3%
≤90d 45 +30.2% +17.8% 47% 47% +6.3%
all 45 +30.2% +17.8% 47% 47% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.8% 47% +6.3%
10% +6.6% 42% -3.9%
15% -3.7% 42% -13.2%
20% -13.2% 42% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$239 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$2,874
Realized+$2,335
Unrealized−$226
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions13
Markets (closed)45 / 58
History coverage13d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 38¢ 38¢ $1,000 $1,013 +$13 (+1%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 18¢ 18¢ $500 $514 +$14 (+3%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 22¢ $500 $293 −$207 (-41%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Japan 8¢ 8¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 36¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 42¢ 38¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$222 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 +$161 +158%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $21 +$133 +650%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$88 +172%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $511 −$500 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $510 +$961 +188%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $510 +$879 +172%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $512 −$500 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 +$243 +238%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $26 +$153 +596%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$579 +114%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $511 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$161 +79%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$556 +109%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $208 +$344 +165%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$197 +193%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$332 +324%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $482 −$472 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$118 +116%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$454 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $998 −$981 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,030 −$1,014 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $994 +$1,133 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 21m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 21m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $206 22m
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 42¢ $102 23m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $102 24m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 24m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 25m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 26m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 26m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 27m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $263 28m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $509 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $512 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $1,019 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $511 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 26h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $10 28h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $51 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $69 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $510 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $510 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,874.06 · official $2,880.85 (match) · 85 history records