Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd757…51f5 crypto 29 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-17%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -19.2% -26.9% 41% 38% -25.9%
≤30d 29 -19.2% -26.9% 41% 38% -25.9%
≤90d 29 -19.2% -26.9% 41% 38% -25.9%
all 29 -19.2% -26.9% 41% 38% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 38% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 34% -33.0%
15% -40.3% 31% -39.5%
20% -46.1% 24% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$22 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records