Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D7 0xd75a…fdec world 153 markets active 4h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,713 (+9%) realized +$6,366 · open +$347
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%61W / 72L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10,930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$7,422
14 days+$13,038
30 days+$9,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$12,235
other 21% −$1,776
politics 11% −$3,995
sports 3% +$257
tech 2% +$595
finance 1% −$449
culture 1% −$142
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +154.0% +129.8% 55% 55% +143.0%
≤30d 39 +24.0% +12.2% 41% 38% +49.0%
≤90d 99 +30.0% +17.6% 47% 43% +19.0%
all 133 +15.0% +4.0% 46% 43% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 43% +4.2%
10% -5.9% 38% -5.8%
15% -15.0% 32% -14.9%
20% -23.3% 28% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$336 vs −$198 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$10,930
Realized+$6,366
Unrealized+$347
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses61 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions20
Markets (closed)133 / 153
History coverage131d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $3,793 $3,855 +$62 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 86¢ $2,259 $2,869 +$610 (+27%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,615 $1,635 +$20 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $815 $822 +$7 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $566 $570 +$3 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $534 $502 −$32 (-6%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 62¢ $256 $160 −$97 (-38%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 67¢ 81¢ $83 $99 +$17 (+20%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $67 $77 +$10 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 27¢ $77 $53 −$24 (-31%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $63 $52 −$10 (-16%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+25%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 37¢ $17 $48 +$31 (+187%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-5%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $122 $42 −$81 (-66%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $63 $38 −$25 (-40%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 40¢ 35¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $116 $6 −$110 (-95%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-99%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $395 +$294 +74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $87 +$22 +25%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $125 −$120 -96%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $35 −$2 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $42 +$54 +130%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $56 +$709 +1262%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $85 +$202 +238%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,573 +$6,287 +176%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,240 +$3,396 +152%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $346 +$573 +166%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,390 +$1,649 +119%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $57 +$91 +158%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $52 −$51 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $81 −$78 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 08 $3,968 +$94 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $68 −$5 -8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $126 +$18 +14%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $17 −$17 -99%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $251 +$150 +60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $192 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $118 +$93 +79%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 30 $254 +$27 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3,812 −$1,447 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $274 −$274 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $151 −$48 -32%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $182 −$182 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $745 −$675 -91%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $238 −$238 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $182 +$40 +22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 23 $453 −$449 -99%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $884 −$882 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $803 +$309 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $6 +$6 +113%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $28 +$11 +40%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 21 $44 +$39 +89%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 21 $199 +$31 +16%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? May 21 $29 +$185 +632%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $170 +$85 +50%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $36 +$66 +181%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $48 +$11 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $256 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 97¢ $215 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $540 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $266 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 32h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $0 34h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $96 34h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $25 35h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $7 35h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $13 36h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $6 36h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $55 37h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $96 37h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $5 37h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 38h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 20¢ $6 38h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 20¢ $6 38h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 25¢ $14 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 38h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 31¢ $22 38h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 30¢ $21 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 39h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 40¢ $10 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 40h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $88 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,929.51 · official $10,929.53 (match) · 2244 history records