Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd75c…2c45 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,599 (+1%) realized +$1,599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 109L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,470per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$777now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$26
14 days+$13
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$164
politics 39% −$97
sports 7% +$1,536
world 3% −$6
economics 2% −$6
culture 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$294
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 +0.2% -9.3% 14% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 122 +3.8% -6.1% 14% 11% -8.7%
all 126 +3.7% -6.2% 13% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 10% -8.8%
10% -15.2% 10% -17.5%
15% -23.4% 10% -25.5%
20% -30.9% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,682) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$5 · ×23.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$777
Realized+$1,599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage92d
Avg bet$1,470
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $778 $777 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,451 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,960 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $4,853 −$5 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $183 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5,321 −$6 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $4,084 −$6 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,931 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,351 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,678 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,487 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $86 +$77 +90%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,458 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $47 +$61 +129%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,886 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $3,082 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,401 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $4,725 −$7 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $47 +$59 +124%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $340 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $729 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,061 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,913 −$5 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,893 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $419 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,267 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $906 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $996 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $778 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,228 19h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,230 21h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 23h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 25h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,624 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,627 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,455 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,457 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,272 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,274 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,540 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,542 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,289 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,291 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,208 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,210 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,095 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,096 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,324 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,325 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,339 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,341 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $956 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $958 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,393 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,395 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $777.39 · official $777.39 (match) · 401 history records