Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd75c…49b5
crypto · 22 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$55 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$124 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$69
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$124
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$4 -19%
Tessa Brockmann vs. Alycia Parks: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$45 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $46 +$26 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $71 −$12 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$48 +190%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$40 -77%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $45 +$12 +26%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$16 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $72 +$2 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $18 +$60 +343%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $13 +$4 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% +$28
sports 42% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will BUY 31¢ $44 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $20 28m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $69 31m
Tessa Brockmann vs. Alycia Parks: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 50¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $85 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $25 2h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $12 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 25h
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef SELL Celine Naef 99¢ $57 25h
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 78¢ $45 25h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) SELL Minaur 100¢ $43 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 100¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +30.8% +18.4% 58% 53% +9.0%
≤30d 19 +30.8% +18.4% 58% 53% +9.0%
≤90d 19 +30.8% +18.4% 58% 53% +9.0%
all 19 +30.8% +18.4% 58% 53% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.4% 53% +9.0%
10% ← realistic here +7.0% 53% -1.5%
15% -3.3% 42% -11.0%
20% -12.8% 37% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.57 · official $111.57 · 56 history records