Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd75f…497e other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$715 (-41%) realized −$854 · open +$139
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$529
world 20% −$77
sports 12% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-68.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -65.4% -68.7% 10% 10% -84.3%
≤30d 10 -65.4% -68.7% 10% 10% -84.3%
≤90d 10 -65.4% -68.7% 10% 10% -84.3%
all 10 -65.4% -68.7% 10% 10% -84.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.7% 10% -84.3%
10% -71.7% 10% -85.8%
15% -74.4% 10% -87.2%
20% -76.9% 10% -88.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$108 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$865
Realized−$854
Unrealized+$139
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 56¢ $324 $443 +$119 (+37%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $262 $282 +$20 (+8%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $303 −$300 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $76 −$74 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$126 +246%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $190 20h
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $84 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $205 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $73 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $51 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $98 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $865.08 · official $865.16 (match) · 36 history records