Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd75f…febb crypto 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$63 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%57W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$77
14 days+$136
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$173
other 30% +$68
sports 9% +$66
world 1% +$12
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 40% +10.9%
≤30d 31 +13.5% +2.7% 68% 61% +5.1%
≤90d 51 +11.5% +0.9% 61% 55% +4.6%
all 96 +5.6% -4.5% 59% 51% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 51% -9.2%
10% -13.6% 42% -17.8%
15% -21.9% 36% -25.8%
20% -29.6% 26% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses57 / 39
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 103
History coverage94d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$22 +110%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on Jun 20 $15 +$22 +145%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $31 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$57 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$49 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$21 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +51%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +63%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$19 -61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $44 +$2 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$14 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 +$6 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 30 $9 +$12 +133%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 +$8 +413%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $4 +$5 +130%
Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $4 −$3 -77%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 08 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 08 $2 $0 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 08 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 04 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 28 $4 +$6 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Panama vs. C BUY $5 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corner BUY 45¢ $20 34h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs BUY 27¢ $20 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Norway BUY $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on SELL 90¢ $37 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on BUY 36¢ $15 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 24¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 25¢ $30 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 24¢ $15 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 24¢ $15 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $13 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.43 · official $64.43 (match) · 247 history records