Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D7 0xd763…fb4e crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%34W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$5
crypto 12% +$1
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 49 +0.1% -9.5% 69% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses34 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage527d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $89 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $72 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $49 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $63 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 27 $5,666 −$6 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $24 $0 +0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Feb 10 $31 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Feb 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trae Young win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Jan 17 $22 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 29d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $45 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $72 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $27 123d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $60 123d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $72 150d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 180d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 180d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $71 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $18 243d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $54 243d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $54 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 303d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 100¢ $53 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 332d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $50 334d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 365d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.98 · official $80.98 (match) · 109 history records