Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D7 0xd763…86a8 sports 8 markets active 3d ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4 (+26%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1
sports 40% +$3
world 13% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +151.1% +127.2% 100% 100% +127.2%
≤30d 6 +67.2% +51.3% 83% 83% +29.8%
≤90d 7 +53.9% +39.2% 71% 71% +20.9%
all 8 +34.6% +21.8% 62% 62% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.8% 62% +12.9%
10% +10.2% 50% +2.1%
15% -0.5% 50% -7.7%
20% -10.2% 50% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage90d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +151%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 +$1 +103%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 +$2 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $7 +$1 +19%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -26%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records