Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd763…84ed sports 61 markets active 6d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-16%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$14
crypto 25% −$9
other 15% −$15
world 12% −$4
politics 8% −$5
finance 7% −$3
tech 4% −$2
culture 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.1% -12.3% 14% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 50 -22.4% -29.8% 12% 4% -27.8%
≤90d 61 -21.7% -29.2% 11% 3% -26.2%
all 61 -21.7% -29.2% 11% 3% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 3% -26.2%
10% -35.9% 2% -33.3%
15% -42.1% 0% -39.7%
20% -47.8% 0% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage28d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $4 $0 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -60%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 05 $3 $0 -15%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -7%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $4 $0 -10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $2 $0 -16%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in June? Jun 03 $2 $0 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 01 $3 −$1 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $2 $0 -20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $2 $0 -7%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $2 $0 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $2 −$1 -29%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $4 $0 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $4 $0 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $2 $0 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $2 $0 +16%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Ivanov May 26 $2 $0 +6%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 25 $1 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 20 $6 −$1 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 20 $3 $0 -10%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $7 −$3 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 20 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 19 $10 −$5 -51%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 18 $3 $0 -12%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 19¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 21¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 22¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $3 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 42¢ $3 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 42¢ $3 6d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $3 6d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL No 32¢ $2 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 29¢ $2 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 14¢ $2 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 15¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 9d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 12d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 12d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 36¢ $3 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 39¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records