Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd764…0eb9 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-20%) realized −$97 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$87
crypto 6% −$11
other 6% −$1
world 3% +$1
finance 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.0% +3.2% 40% 20% -12.9%
≤30d 54 -21.4% -28.9% 43% 33% -25.3%
≤90d 57 -22.3% -29.7% 42% 33% -25.4%
all 57 -22.3% -29.7% 42% 33% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 33% -25.4%
10% -36.4% 32% -32.6%
15% -42.6% 25% -39.1%
20% -48.2% 21% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)57 / 68
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -19%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $3 +$3 +89%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4 −$1 -29%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $9 −$1 -11%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $25 +$15 +59%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1 +$2 +179%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2 −$1 -57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$4 -79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 $0 +6%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026 May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +23%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? May 30 $1 $0 +20%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 26 $1 $0 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 24 $17 −$17 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $11 −$10 -89%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $39 −$39 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $9 +$7 +77%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $3 +$5 +164%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2 +$4 +182%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $13 +$9 +71%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 22 $25 +$28 +112%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $2 +$2 +82%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 22 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $37 −$21 -59%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $21 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $2 −$1 -49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 21 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $37 +$32 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $6 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 56¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 52¢ $3 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 55¢ $5 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 54¢ $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 36¢ $5 9h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 10¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 11¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 16¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming $1 8d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY GamerLegion $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.50 · official $36.50 · 237 history records