Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D7 0xd764…1809 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$115 (+17%) realized +$155 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +80.8% +63.6% 100% 100% +62.2%
≤30d 2 +80.8% +63.6% 100% 100% +62.2%
≤90d 5 +41.3% +27.8% 60% 60% +8.7%
all 8 +26.2% +14.2% 50% 50% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 50% +17.5%
10% +3.2% 50% +6.3%
15% -6.7% 50% -4.0%
20% -15.9% 50% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$65 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage141d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 0¢ 76¢ $0 $92 +$92 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Tuivasa 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jirí Procházka 50¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Fiziev 55¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card) Beneil Dariush 23¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $61 +$39 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Apr 12 $50 +$122 +245%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $100 −$98 -98%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $100 +$203 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.58 · official $141.58 (match) · 14 history records