Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd770…1ed5 crypto 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate69%223W / 100L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$121
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$5
sports 11% +$9
world 4% +$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 12% -24.4%
≤30d 323 +4.7% -5.2% 69% 15% -9.7%
≤90d 323 +4.7% -5.2% 69% 15% -9.7%
all 323 +4.7% -5.2% 69% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 15% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 7% -18.3%
15% -22.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -30.2% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses223 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)323 / 323
History coverage13d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 323 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 684 history records