Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd770…51f1 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%39W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 39 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses39 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage222d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? Mar 03 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 29? Jan 30 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 26? Jan 28 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 24? Jan 25 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 22? Jan 22 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? Jan 11 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 31? Jan 05 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 26? Dec 27 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 19? Dec 20 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on December 16? Dec 17 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11? Dec 12 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 3? Dec 05 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 24? Nov 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $135 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $50 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $102 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $101 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $101 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $101 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $102 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $101 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $148 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $152 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 15? BUY No 100¢ $151 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $147 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $144 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $149 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $149 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 2? BUY No 100¢ $148 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 31? BUY No 100¢ $146 149d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 29? BUY No 100¢ $143 152d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $149 155d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 24? BUY No 100¢ $146 157d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $147 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 161d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $144 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.57 · official $50.57 (match) · 79 history records