Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd770…a1fe other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
sports 24% −$20
politics 10% −$7
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage131d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $829 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $830 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $513 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $484 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $234 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $548 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $299 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $276 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 02 $597 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $419 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $312 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 29 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $77 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $67 41m
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $67 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $67 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $67 4h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $67 6h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $67 7h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 8h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $68 10h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $68 11h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $68 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 14h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 19h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $68 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 24h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $68 29h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $68 30h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $68 32h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $68 33h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $68 34h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 35h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $68 37h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $69 38h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $69 43h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $69 44h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $69 46h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $69 47h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $69 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $69 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $69 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.13 · official $67.13 (match) · 1340 history records