Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

D7 0xd772…279a other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$33 (-14%) realized −$74 · open +$41

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-18.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-10.0%	-18.5%	60%	60%	-36.8%
≤30d	5	-10.0%	-18.5%	60%	60%	-36.8%
≤90d	5	-10.0%	-18.5%	60%	60%	-36.8%
all	5	-10.0%	-18.5%	60%	60%	-36.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.5%	60%	-36.8%
10%	-26.3%	60%	-42.9%
15%	-33.4%	60%	-48.4%
20%	-40.0%	20%	-53.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.44 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$141

Realized−$74

Unrealized+$41

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	100¢	$100	$141	+$41 (+41%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	Jun 18	$21	+$12	+59%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$9	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$20	+$10	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	SELL Yes	25¢	$33	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$20	37h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.77 · official $140.77 (match) · 9 history records