Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd776…d532 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate90%35W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$21
14 days−$91
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$33
world 42% −$59
politics 1% +$5
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.6% +0.9% 75% 50% -0.3%
≤30d 30 -0.4% -9.9% 90% 10% -12.8%
≤90d 39 +2.2% -7.6% 90% 18% -10.4%
all 39 +2.2% -7.6% 90% 18% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 18% -10.4%
10% -16.4% 8% -19.0%
15% -24.5% 3% -26.8%
20% -31.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$42 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses35 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage68d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 62¢ $83 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 19 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 19 $63 +$5 +8%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 19 $44 +$12 +28%
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalu Jun 14 $38 +$5 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Kyffin Simpson win the 2026 Bommarito Automotive Group 500? Jun 08 $134 +$3 +2%
Will Cadillac achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will Tgr Haas achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Williams achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $26 +$2 +6%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Fernando Alonso achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 06 $17 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F Jun 06 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Jun 06 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 Jun 05 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Sergio Perez achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Jun 05 $90 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $87 +$3 +4%
Will Pierre Gasly get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $66 +$20 +30%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? Jun 01 $145 +$14 +10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $129 +$7 +6%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 24 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Jack Harvey win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mick Schumacher win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? May 24 $29 $0 +1%
Will Katherine Legge win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? May 24 $29 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 22 $71 +$6 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $67 +$2 +4%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 04 $60 +$8 +13%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 25 $51 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $37 +$14 +38%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $35 +$2 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $29 +$5 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 63¢ $53 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 59¢ $53 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 63¢ $31 1h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $31 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 60¢ $56 1h
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 1h
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 1h
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $43 3d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 3d
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalu BUY No 87¢ $38 5d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $38 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $136 9d
Will Kyffin Simpson win the 2026 Bommarito Automotive Group 500? BUY No 98¢ $61 11d
Will Kyffin Simpson win the 2026 Bommarito Automotive Group 500? BUY No 98¢ $73 11d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P SELL No 100¢ $56 11d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY No 93¢ $26 11d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $43 11d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY No 93¢ $26 12d
Will Cadillac achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 98¢ $8 12d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix SELL No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 94¢ $17 12d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 94¢ $9 12d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 91¢ $14 12d
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 SELL No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Fernando Alonso achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 BUY No 99¢ $17 12d
Will Tgr Haas achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 96¢ $24 13d
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F BUY No 94¢ $8 13d
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 92¢ $12 13d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 79¢ $4 13d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 83¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.59 · official $82.59 (match) · 109 history records