Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd779…58cc other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% $0
other 38% −$1
crypto 9% −$1
economics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage112d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $81 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $82 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $82 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 28 $82 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $82 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $82 $0 +0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $83 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $80 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $81 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $81 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $81 12d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $81 20d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $81 20d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 26d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $81 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $81 37d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $81 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $81 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $81 46d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $81 46d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 51d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 51d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 66d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $82 68d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $82 69d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $82 71d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $82 71d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 77d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 78d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 79d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 80d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? SELL No 100¢ $82 87d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $82 87d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $82 94d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $68 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records